So he’s done it! I hoped he would not and even wrote that I thought it was unlikely but what the hell do I know? This is not the first time since WW2 there has been fighting in Europe and indeed the Ukraine and Russia had not ceased hostilities since the occupation of the Crimea. All the posturing by the West up until now has been ineffective and Putin could care less. He has his own agenda and whether we sanction or not it won’t affect him. He sees the encroachment of NATO as a threat to his country and as a leader steeped in the historical dominance of the former Soviet Union, wants to take back as much territory as he can get away with and damn the consequences or the condemnation of other nations. He knows our reluctance to be drawn into any form of military conflict and as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO we have the perfect excuse to stand on the sidelines and shout about what a bully he is! If he threatens a country that is a member, do we really have the appetite for conflict and the huge consequences that could bring? I seriously doubt it and I think Putin does too? He knows that China could care less what happens in Europe and unlikely to condemn or interfere.
We will stand by and scream and shout how we are horrified by these actions but nothing will be done and no doubt he will overrun the country and take it under Russian control. By the time it is finished it will be too late and he will have achieved his objective. Years will go by and successive governments will accept that Russia now controls the Ukraine and eventually sanctions will lift and the whole thing will be forgotten. It is a pattern we have seen many times before and it will repeat. Have we continued to condemn or force sanctions on Russia after Putin annexed the Crimea?
The only thing that will stop this is if Putin dies and a more moderate leader emerges but that is highly unlikely he looks a lot healthier than our lot.
The West are posturing fools who are no longer prepared to fight or do anything to really significant to halt Putin. Let me state quit clearly I am not advocating sending troops to fight Russia indeed it would be abhorrent. We do not have that stomach for it and thats fine. We poked the bear and the bear kept coming.
Stay well
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