SIR GUESTLING THORN

I fear I have to revise my assessment of the Ukraine situation. I have this horrible feeling that Putin will give the go ahead to invade as swiftly and efficiently as possible. He knows that for all the posturing of the West they don’t have the will to get into a conflict with Russia? If he does we will moan and complain, throw up our hands in horror but apart from ineffective sanctions we will sit idly by and wring our hands. Now I am not advocating for a war with Russia or for one moment suggesting we start a conflict which nobody can win! Russia have all the cards and he knows he can play them. He is after something, what I don’t know but he see discord and unrest in Europe and knows this is his best chance of taking advantage of it.

Biden says a lot but he has no heart to really get his troops involved especially as Ukraine who are not actually a member of NATO. France is tied up in it’s election, Germany are basically pacifist a and want nothing to do with conflict. The rest of Europe have there own problems and have little or no interest in the events in Ukraine. As for Britain, tell me would you be worried about a country lead by you know who?

Russia wants to establish itself as a “power” again and have greater sphere of influence. I wonder if anyone has actually asked Putin what he wants and what he is afraid of? Maybe we would not get an answer but it’s worth a try? 

This threat is the sole reason that our energy bills are rising and a cynic would say that it gives those Oligarchs the opportunity to make more money. Putin postures and our gas bill goes up.

Putin and Russia may not really want a conflict any more than we do, his citizens are no more keen on bloodshed and loosing there loved ones than we are. He is pushing the boundaries in order to see the strength of will and appetite of the West to stop him? Trouble is, it does not take much to step over that line and if he thinks he can get the Ukraine with little resistance from the West, the temptation to do so may become too strong?

There will be bloodshed if he tries and the Ukraine will fight, it will be to our shame if we stand by a and let a sovereign nation be invaded but you can completely understand the reluctance to get involved militarily.

Stay well